Fidelity Digital Assets finds Bitcoin now moving with US Treasury real rates

Bitcoin and US government bonds were never supposed to be friends. One is a decentralized digital asset with no issuer. The other is debt backed by the US government. Yet a new study from Fidelity Digital Assets says the two are now moving in step, and the reason has a lot to do with Washington’s balance sheet. In research published on October 15, 2026, the firm found that the correlation between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and the real rate on 10-year US Treasury bonds has climbed above 0.6. That is a record, and it marks a sharp break from how the two assets usually behave around each other. What Fidelity found Historically, Bitcoin sat on the negative or near-zero end of that scale relative to Treasury yields. Fidelity’s research says that relationship has now flipped into clearly positive territory, with the reading pushing past 0.6. The “real” part of real rates also matters. It refers to bond yields after adjusting for inflation, which gives a cleaner view of what lenders actually earn. The recent price action backs up the pattern. Bitcoin gained nearly 30% over the two months leading up to the report’s release. Over that same window, 10-year Treasury rates rose more than...