Fundstrat predicts Bitcoin is overdue for 30% price moves

Fundstrat Global Advisors is telling clients to brace for impact. The research firm, known for its consistently bullish Bitcoin calls, says the asset is primed for price swings of 30% or more, continuing a pattern of dramatic moves that has defined Bitcoin’s trading history. The numbers behind the call Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee has set a long-term Bitcoin price target in the range of $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026. That figure implies a substantial move from the trading range the firm has flagged in early 2026, which spanned roughly $58,200 to $74,000. Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, has offered a more near-term picture. His outlook included a potential pullback toward the $60,000 to $65,000 range during a period of market consolidation. The firm’s broader thesis rests on a well-documented quirk of Bitcoin’s trading history: most of its annual gains tend to concentrate within just 10 trading days. Miss those sessions, and a year’s worth of upside can evaporate. Lee has also suggested that Bitcoin may be in the process of decoupling from its traditional four-year halving cycle. Why the 30% framing matters A 30% move in either direction is not a rounding er...