Galaxy Finds 7 in 10 Polymarket Retail Traders Lost Money

Galaxy studied 2.9 million human-paced Polymarket accounts and found that losses dominated. Interestingly, sports specialists performed worst among major categories. Most retail traders on Polymarket lose money. A Galaxy Research study of 2.9 million human-paced accounts found that more than 69% finished below break-even. The group recorded aggregate losses of $338.9 million. The research used Polymarket’s full on-chain history, covering positions, entry prices, holding periods, as well as payouts. Galaxy excluded 125,429 accounts that averaged more than 50 orders per active trading day, treating them as likely automated. These accounts made up just 4.1% of wallets but accounted for 80.8% of all orders. Behavior of Polymarket Traders Among the remaining accounts, the median retail account lost around $3, which indicates that most losses were relatively small, while a smaller group lost thousands. Galaxy also found that losing money was linked to higher churn. About 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days after a loss, compared with 6.1% after a win. The study also examined whether traders increased risk after winning or losing. Both groups usually returned with slightl...