Gartner predicts open-weight models will run 90% of enterprise agent workflow steps by 2030

Two Gartner analysts argue cheaper open models will handle most routine AI agent work, with value shifting to orchestration Gartner thinks most of the work done by enterprise AI agents will soon run on models that companies can download, inspect, and run themselves. Analysts Mark Petty and Raymond Paquet forecast that open-weight models will power 90% of enterprise agentic workflow steps by 2030. Their reasoning is mostly about money, though control comes up too. The math behind the forecast The two analysts focus on the unglamorous parts of an AI agent’s job. That means classification, tool calling, data validation, and reconciliation. According to Petty and Paquet, open-weight models can now handle these steps at quality comparable to closed models. Once quality is matched, the price gap becomes hard to ignore. “Against the cheapest closed model at the same score, the open model costs a quarter as much. Against a frontier model run on every step, it costs as little as a twentieth,” the pair wrote. Put plainly: if two models score the same on a task, the open one can cost 25% of the cheapest closed rival. Compared with sending every step to a top-tier frontier model, it may cost o...