Glassnode identifies first Bitcoin bear market without price drop below realized price

Every Bitcoin bear market since at least 2017 has shared one brutal ritual: price eventually crashes below the realized price, the on-chain metric that represents the average cost basis of every coin on the network. This time, it didn’t happen. Glassnode’s latest on-chain report, dated September 23, 2026, confirms that Bitcoin never posted a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market. The June 2026 low, which marked the cycle’s deepest drawdown, still held above that critical threshold. During the 2018-2019 bear market and again in 2022-2023, Bitcoin spent extended stretches trading below this line, meaning the average holder was sitting on unrealized losses. Why the realized price matters Think of the realized price as Bitcoin’s collective break-even point. It’s calculated by valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averaging the whole supply. When the market price drops below it, the typical Bitcoin holder is underwater. Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric, known as NUPL, reinforces the point. NUPL stayed positive throughout the entire cycle. That’s never happened in a Bitcoin bear market before. It means that while individual...