Global stock market cap hits $166 trillion, reaching 137% of global GDP near record territory

The global stock market is now worth $166 trillion. That number, on its own, is hard to wrap your head around. Here’s the context that makes it matter: it represents roughly 137% of the entire world’s economic output, a ratio that sits near all-time highs and deep into what Warren Buffett would call “playing with fire” territory. The figure marks a $32 trillion increase year-over-year, a 23.6% jump that has been powered almost entirely by one narrative: artificial intelligence. The Buffett Indicator is screaming The ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP is sometimes called the Buffett Indicator, named after the Oracle of Omaha who once described it as “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” When it runs significantly above 100%, it historically signals that equities are overvalued relative to economic fundamentals. At 137%, the global version of this metric is now pushing past levels that preceded previous corrections. The ratio sat at roughly 130% for 2024, meaning the climb has accelerated into 2025 and 2026 projections. US equities alone account for somewhere between $75 trillion and $81 trillion of that $166 trillion total. ...