Goldman Sachs estimates AI could temporarily displace 9% of US workers

Goldman Sachs thinks artificial intelligence could temporarily push about 9% of US workers out of their jobs. That estimate assumes AI lifts productivity by 15%. In headcount terms, Goldman Sachs Research puts it at up to 15 million people over roughly a decade. The figure is also a step up from the bank’s earlier thinking. Its previous estimate pegged displacement at 6% to 7% of the workforce. What Goldman is actually projecting The research is led by Goldman economist Joseph Briggs. The core idea is simple: when machines make work faster, some existing jobs disappear before new ones fill the gap. The team built the new number from historical patterns of job disruption caused by technology. It does not rely only on net unemployment figures, which can hide a lot of churn underneath. The US version of that churn is large. According to the research, roughly 30 million jobs are created and destroyed in the country every year. Goldman’s historical analysis found a link between productivity and that churn. Each 1% gain in productivity from technology lifts job destruction rates by about 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points over two years. Put a 15% productivity boost into that formula, and you ...