Goldman Sachs says AI will eliminate nearly 15 million jobs

An updated Goldman forecast raises the displacement estimate to 9% of the US workforce, with some sectors already feeling the pressure. Goldman Sachs has a new number for the AI labor market debate, and it is not a comfortable one. The bank’s research team projects that artificial intelligence could displace up to 9% of the US workforce over the next decade, a figure that translates to roughly 15 million jobs. The updated forecast, published on October 22, 2026, and led by economist Joseph Briggs, marks a meaningful revision from the bank’s prior estimate of 6% to 7% displacement. How Goldman arrived at 15 million The methodology behind the estimate draws on historical data linking productivity growth to job destruction. According to the research, each 1 percentage point increase in productivity from technological change tends to raise job destruction rates by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points over a two-year window. The report also flags that the disruption is not purely theoretical at this point. Sectors vulnerable to AI integration, including technology, management consulting, and graphic design, are already shedding 10,000 to 15,000 jobs per month. That is happening while AI integra...