Goldman Sachs says the AI growth boost is nearing its peak, while Apollo finds zero payoff outside tech

For more than a year, the AI spending spree has been one of the main forces holding up US economic growth. Now two of Wall Street’s most closely watched economists are suggesting that support is running out of road. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius says the boost from AI investment is about to crest. Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok adds a harsher point: the productivity payoff that was supposed to take over hasn’t arrived for most companies. Two economists, one uncomfortable picture Start with Hatzius. His view is that AI-related capital expenditure, the money companies pour into chips, data centers, and related hardware, cannot keep climbing forever. Goldman estimates US AI-related capex recently ran at roughly $600 billion. Hatzius expects that spending may still rise further before it eventually levels off. He compares the expected plateau to earlier technology waves such as the railroads and electrification. Both transformed the economy, and both had a frantic construction phase that eventually gave way to something calmer. The more awkward number is AI’s measured contribution to growth. Hatzius pointed out that AI added only 0.1 percentage points to US GDP growth ...