1 hour ago
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Sustained attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, described as the largest supply disruption on record, have not moved the crude oil all-time high market much: crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1.3% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
With over 10-11 million barrels per day of production shut-ins, speculation has increased around WTI hitting $160 in April. But the crude oil all-time high by April 30 market remains at 1.3% YES. Trading volume is modest: only $2,513 in USDC traded, with a $695 cost to move the market by 5 points. That thin liquidity means large trades could cause swift price swings. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike, suggesting traders are waiting for more concrete developments.
Why it matters
Repairing the damaged infrastructure is estimated to take 3-5 years at a cost of $34-58 billion, making a quick resolution unlikely. The severity of the disruption could still drive substantial volatility even if the market currently prices an all-time high as remote. A YES share is priced at 1.3¢, offering a 77x return if crude hits the all-time high. That bet requires a belief in significant new escalation, such as complete Iranian export bans or further destruction of refining capacity.
What to watch
Any announcements from OPEC+ or shifts in US-Iran diplomatic or military engagements. A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz or new emergency production cuts would be the most likely catalysts to move this market sharply higher.
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