2 hours ago
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Hegseth’s statement that mine-laying violates the ceasefire has rattled markets. “Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?” sits at 4.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 20% a week ago.
The drop reflects the deteriorating situation in the Strait of Hormuz. As the US intensifies its military stance, the likelihood of 80 ships transiting by the end of April has sharply diminished. Traders are reacting to the US’s hardening position on Iranian actions, especially with the dual blockade impacting ship movements. The market has lost most of its confidence over the past week, suggesting traders expect more tensions rather than a resolution.
Daily volume is $794 in actual USDC traded, with a face value of $12,478. It takes just $940 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, which means even small volumes can swing prices considerably. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a modest 1-point drop.
Hegseth’s remarks about mine-laying being a ceasefire violation point to the breakdown of diplomatic efforts. With the ceasefire effectively defunct, the odds of transit are low. At 4.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 22.2x return. This bet assumes a drastic shift in the current military and diplomatic situation within seven days.
Traders should watch for moves from the US Navy, changes in toll policies by Iran, or a surprise diplomatic breakthrough. Admiral Cooper’s next report on blockade enforcement could shift the odds.
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