1 hour ago
2
While I was in Malta last month, attending NEXT Focus: Crypto and NEXT: Valletta, it was clear that prediction markets are a hot topic. Everyone was talking about them. In fact, iGaming NEXT will be hosting an entire Prediction Markets conference
in New York City on October 22-23, an event that has already attracted some of the biggest names in the space and garnered significant industry attention.
I first started looking at prediction markets because of Polymarket, in particular, a hybrid platform that uses a mix of the Polygon blockchain (a sidechain of Ethereum) and traditional or “centralized” tech. Some examples of how Polymarket uses blockchain include oracles and smart contracts to manage the market, record trades on-chain, and use stablecoins for payments. These blockchain-powered features help provide transparency—and therefore trust—in what is happening within the marketplace.
Since the explosion in popularity of Polymarket and Kalshi (a prediction market platform that does not use blockchain tech), it feels like everyone in iGaming is scrambling to get involved in this space, despite regulatory confusion and challenges. The question of whether prediction markets should be considered sports betting is one thing, but market manipulation is another, and this is an area where I am confident blockchain can help.
Can blockchain fix the trust gap in prediction markets?
As the iGaming industry evolves, transparency isn't just a compliance requirement—it's what builds player trust.
We asked industry experts to break down exactly how blockchain technology can make prediction markets and the… pic.twitter.com/19BNkoi8ZI
“When people talk about prediction markets, they really misconceive that price means trust or truth, and it doesn’t,” Steve Wyman, Head of Web3 at RPM Gaming, shared with me in Malta after our “Blockchain Beyond Payments” panel.
“You’ve got to have transparency of the underlying, that’s what blockchain is built on. Blockchain is all about transparency,” he said.
“So where the data, where your oracle, whatever has happened is there and everyone can see what has happened to that price or that ecosystem or that truth, all the way through,” he explained.
“That’s why blockchain is so key for the adoption of prediction markets and the access to truth,” Wyman added.
Simit Naik of Teranode Group, also a panel speaker, explained how blockchain can build trust in the data powering the various markets on prediction market sites.
“The fact that most prediction markets are peer-to-peer anyway, by their design, a lot of trust already exists. I think where it does need to improve is in the access to the data that informs the different markets,” he revealed.
“I think one of the big challenges is people who use prediction markets a lot, a lot of them have access to the data far quicker, far easier than most other people. And so you find these markets where people are coming in and suddenly find themselves overexposed,” Naik said.
“So, access and accessibility to data is going to be one of the most important things that prediction markets need to improve. And again, that’s where blockchain will come in. We have to be able to prove the source of data, prove when that data was accessed, and also to ensure that people don’t have a head start,” he explained.
“The thing with prediction markets is even if you’re one second ahead of your competition, you’ve already beat the market,” Naik added.
To balance out the opinions I gathered on how blockchain can improve trust in prediction markets, I spoke with an operator, Brett Calapp, Co-Founder of Wandando, who was also on one of my panels in Malta.
“I think we’ve got to take one step back because we can’t really talk about blockchain piping and prediction markets when prediction markets themselves have only been around for a little bit of time,” he pointed out.
“If we think about all the things that need to improve, when we think about customer experience, when we think about the UI and the interface and the gamification of prediction markets and what we need to actually do,” he said.
“But like all things that are on-chain, we know we want transparency in the markets, we want transparency on how the markets are made, and blockchain can add those things to it,” he confirmed.
While we may not be ready to move prediction market platforms to blockchain just yet, the use cases are clear, and full transparency would address regulators’ concerns. I think we are looking at a massive opportunity with blockchain and prediction markets, and I look forward to following this space as it continues to grow and mature.
Watch: Blockchain revolution in big banks
English (US) · 