How Important Is The $70k Level For BTC Price Bullish Momentum?

Bitcoin price prediction has been a topic of constant discussion, with experts forecasting a wide range of outcomes. While recent months have seen fluctuations in BTC value, with it struggling to break key resistance levels, some analysts remain bullish, projecting Bitcoin price could reach astronomical heights by 2050. This article delves into the most recent predictions and market analyses to give you a comprehensive view of what could be in store for Bitcoin price in the short and long term.

VanEck’s $2.9 Million Bitcoin Prediction

Amid ongoing volatility, VanEck, a leading asset manager, has released a bold prediction, projecting Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050. VanEck’s forecast hinges on the belief that Bitcoin will solidify its role as a key international medium of exchange and potentially become one of the world's reserve currencies. The asset manager suggests that the decline in trust in current reserve assets might push global economies to adopt Bitcoin more widely, especially as technological advancements like Layer-2 (L2) solutions improve Bitcoin's scalability and efficiency.

VanEck envisions Bitcoin being used to settle 10% of international trade and 5% of domestic transactions by 2050. This increased adoption could lead central banks to hold a small portion of their assets in Bitcoin, further driving its value. The firm’s estimate also factors in projected global economic growth, with a potential market capitalization of $61 trillion for Bitcoin.

By TradingView- BTC Price Performance (24h)

Bitcoin Price Prediction: September’s Potential Turning Point

While long-term predictions are impressive, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin is equally intriguing. After a challenging August, some analysts believe September could mark a turning point for BTC price. Notable crypto analyst highlighted a historical pattern where Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase in March and then rallied by September, suggesting a similar trajectory could be in play this year.

By TradingView - BTCUSD_2024-09-03 (5Y)

Despite recent bearish trends, with Bitcoin dipping below the $60,000 mark, there are signs of recovery. Prominent analysts have pointed to Bitcoin's potential to bounce back from the $54,000 support level, possibly rallying to $68,000 in September. One analyst, in particular, noted that market sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral, with declining "paper" BTC bets signaling a possible stabilization.

The Critical $70,000 Level for Bitcoin Price Uptrend

For Bitcoin to continue its upward momentum, it must break through the $70,000 resistance level.

By TradingView - BTCUSD_2024-09-03

 According to data from IntoTheBlock, approximately seven million addresses purchased Bitcoin between $61,700 and $70,500, meaning these holders could be inclined to sell once BTC approaches their break-even price. This selling pressure poses a significant challenge for Bitcoin's price growth.

By TradingView - BTCUSD_2024-09-03 (YTD)

However, there are bullish indicators as well. Over 30% of Bitcoin's total supply is held by long-term holders who have kept their assets for over five years, demonstrating strong market confidence. Moreover, the market has been absorbing supply from sources like German authorities and the US Department of Justice, which could support price stability.

Why Fed Rate Cuts Aren’t Boosting Bitcoin Price?

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently shared his insights on why Federal Reserve rate cuts might not be providing the expected boost to Bitcoin. Despite announcements of potential rate cuts, BTC prices have struggled, declining after an initial spike. Hayes attributes this to the impact of reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs), which offer higher interest rates than traditional Treasury bills, leading large money market funds to park their cash in RRPs instead of riskier assets like Bitcoin.

This situation suggests that even with rate cuts, the market dynamics aren't favoring a strong rally for Bitcoin, as capital remains tied up in safer investments.