Huawei’s AI chip output projected at 4% of Nvidia’s by 2026

Huawei is doubling its AI chip production. It still won’t matter much on the global stage. A Council on Foreign Relations analysis projects that Huawei’s AI compute output will amount to roughly 4% of Nvidia’s in 2026, even under the most aggressive production assumptions. That share is actually expected to shrink further, dropping to just 2% by 2027. The numbers tell two very different stories Zoom into China, and Huawei looks like a juggernaut. The company is on track to capture approximately 50% of the domestic AI chip market by 2026, according to the CFR report published in December 2025. Meanwhile, Bernstein Research estimates Nvidia’s share in China will crater from around 40% in 2025 to roughly 8% in 2026. Zoom out to the global picture, and the story flips entirely. Huawei plans to produce around 600,000 Ascend 910C chips in 2026, which would double its 2025 production levels. Even with that ramp-up, Huawei’s total AI compute would represent less than 4% of what Nvidia ships. Huawei’s projected AI chip revenue for 2026 sits at approximately $12 billion, up from an estimated $7.5 billion in 2025. But Nvidia generated over $130 billion in data center revenue in its fiscal yea...