If the Fed trusts this single 2.2% metric, Bitcoin could break $65.3k and ignite a path to $68k

Bitcoin is trading near $63,000, with rate markets assigning roughly 66% odds to a September Federal Reserve hike, under a policy framework Kevin Warsh has left partly hidden.The Fed chair has defined his reaction function around “underlying inflation,” then declined to disclose how he weighs the indicators that produce that judgment.The official dashboard spans 1.5 percentage points: headline PCE runs at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.3%, the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price CPI at 2.8%, Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation at 2.43%, and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed-mean PCE at 2.2%.One economy supplies readings from nearly twice the Fed’s 2% goal to barely above it.Inflation measureLatest readingGap from 2% targetWhat it tells WarshHeadline PCE3.7%+1.7 ppInflation still far above targetCore PCE3.3%+1.3 ppUnderlying pressure remains elevatedAtlanta Fed sticky-price CPI2.8%+0.8 ppPersistent inflation is cooling, but not at targetCleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation2.43%+0.43 ppLong-term expectations remain containedDallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE2.2%+0.2 ppBroad inflation is close to targetWarsh told reporters that the Fed’s January strategy document keeps PCE as its formal objective. He invoked Go...