IMF says AI boom is driving global trade growth, with China and India among the big winners

Artificial intelligence is now doing a lot of the heavy lifting for global trade. According to the International Monetary Fund, the AI boom has been a major engine of cross-border commerce, with China and India among its biggest beneficiaries. IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro laid out the numbers on October 13, 2026, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. The numbers behind the AI trade surge Between 2023 and 2025, global trade grew 8.3%, according to Tenreyro. Over the same stretch, AI-related trade jumped 29%. Tenreyro also offered a counterfactual. Without AI-related trade, overall trade growth would have been just 4.6%. The gains have not been spread evenly. The IMF singled out China and India as countries benefiting most from the boom. AI supply chains are concentrated in a small number of countries, mainly the US, China, and India. That concentration is what drives the winners list, and it is also what worries the IMF. Georgieva: AI is propping up global growth Tenreyro’s assessment followed remarks a day earlier from IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. On October 12, Georgieva said AI investment is helping sustain global GDP growth at around 3% for...