Iran and Oman draft waterway deal as Trump rejects Tehran’s control, transit fees

Iran and Oman are drafting a potential agreement regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint, while U.S. President Donald Trump has objected to any Iranian control and fee imposition. The discussions between Iran and Oman involve shipping routes and possible service fees but are conditional on the U.S. lifting sanctions. Trump’s firm stance against Iranian tolls and control aligns with a high-escalation maritime dispute, involving sanctions and threats around shipping in the strait. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, as a major energy transit route, means any fee regime by Iran could have significant international implications. Key Takeaways Trump’s opposition to Iranian control and transit fees suggests a decrease in the likelihood of the U.S. imposing its own fees on the Strait of Hormuz. Market pricing indicates a low probability of the U.S. charging fees for Hormuz passage, with odds currently at 1.8% for August 31, 2026. The ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman could lead to changes in the market outlook if U.S. sanctions are addressed. What to Watch Monitor any developments in the Iran-Oman negotiations for further detail...