2 hours ago
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Iran continues to move millions of barrels of crude oil around the US naval blockade. The Crude Oil all-time high by April 30 market sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a week ago.
Market reaction
Tracking data shows Iran’s shadow fleet is bypassing the blockade and maintaining oil exports. This undercuts the blockade’s effectiveness and reduces the chance of extreme supply disruptions. The Crude Oil all-time high by April 30 market dropped to 1.1% YES. Traders have priced in a lower probability of a complete export halt triggering a price spike above $120/barrel.
Why it matters
With six days left until resolution, the term structure points to low likelihood of a supply shock before month-end. The largest price move was a 1-point spike, a stable reaction given the geopolitical backdrop.
Actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours was $2,513, with a face value of $100,828. Market depth is thin: just $695 would shift the price by 5 points. That makes the market vulnerable to large orders, but no major disruptions have materialized. The flat price action suggests traders expect continued Iranian exports to prevent a record-breaking price surge.
At 1.1¢, a YES share pays $1 if oil prices break their all-time high by April 30. That’s a bet on extreme scenarios like a fully successful blockade or a new military escalation. For this contract to pay out, tensions would need to escalate well beyond their current level.
What to watch
Changes in US naval strategy or Iranian export routing. OPEC+ production decisions and EIA reports on strategic reserves could also shift expectations and pricing in this market.
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