Iran claims missile attack on US aircraft carrier, destroyer

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has claimed responsibility for a ballistic missile attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer, according to reports from @KobeissiLetter. This escalation marks a significant intensification in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, which has seen a series of retaliatory strikes between the two nations. The IRGC’s direct engagement with major U.S. naval assets, if confirmed, could represent a pivotal moment in the regional dynamics, potentially impacting various geopolitical and market scenarios. The reported attack has already influenced prediction markets, particularly those focused on the likelihood of Iran implementing a full airspace closure by the end of the year. The current odds of a full airspace closure by December 31 have increased to 30.5%, reflecting heightened military tensions. This market movement suggests that participants view the latest developments as consistent with scenarios where Iran may decide to close its airspace in response to perceived threats. The situation remains fluid, with key actors such as the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran (CAOI) and Iranian State Television (IRIB) holdin...