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Iran’s latest proposal calls for lifting the US naval blockade before starting nuclear negotiations. The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 2% YES, down from 6% yesterday.
In the Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 market, odds have dropped sharply as Iran’s proposal explicitly delays nuclear talks behind a blockade precondition. Traders are pricing in very little chance of a quick resolution on enrichment. The market for no diplomatic US-Iran meeting by June 30 is at 15.7%, up from 9% just 24 hours ago, reflecting growing pessimism about near-term diplomacy.
The uranium enrichment market has $88,913 in face value traded over 24 hours, with $4,778 in actual USDC. It takes $2,529 to move the odds 5 percentage points, which means liquidity is thin. The largest single move in the past day was a 2-point spike on a relatively small trade.
Iran’s insistence on ending the blockade first tests whether the US will negotiate without its primary leverage tool. For traders, this makes rapid nuclear de-escalation unlikely on the current timeline. A YES purchase at 2¢ pays $1 if Iran agrees to end enrichment by April 30, but that outcome would require a diplomatic breakthrough that neither side appears close to reaching.
Watch for Trump’s Situation Room meeting tomorrow. Any signal of US willingness to lift the blockade could move odds fast. Also track statements from Vice President Vance or Iranian officials for signs of back-channel diplomacy, which would be the most likely catalyst for a market shift.
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