2 hours ago
2
Iran’s new law imposes tolls on ships using the Strait of Hormuz, with additional fees for certain nations. The market for 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 sits at 5% YES, down from 17% yesterday.
Market reaction
The probability of 80 ships transiting by April 30 dropped from 17% to 5% YES after Iran’s announcement. The new law includes tolls denominated in Iranian rials and bans specific vessels, giving shipping operators a direct reason to reroute or delay.
Why it matters
The market trades $18,346/day in face value, but actual USDC traded is just $2,238, a thin market. It takes $946 to move the price by 5 points, meaning a few larger trades could still shift the odds considerably.
Iran’s decision to enforce tolls and seize non-compliant ships signals its intent to control the waterway directly. With seven days left until resolution, traders are pricing in serious skepticism about a surge in ship transit under these conditions. A YES share at 5¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 20x return, but that bet requires believing in a major diplomatic breakthrough within a week.
What to watch
Any U.S. or allied naval action to maintain open passage, or a diplomatic intervention that changes trade dynamics. Admiral Cooper’s next update on U.S. Navy operations in the region could signal a shift.
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