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Iran’s internet blackout has reached 1,200 hours, now 51 days of limited connectivity. The regime fall by May 31 market sits at 3% YES.
The blackout, reportedly a control measure during protests, suggests the regime’s grip remains firm. This has affected related markets: Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran is at 4.5% YES for June 30, down from a week ago. December 31 odds are higher at 13.5% YES, which implies traders expect more possibility of movement over the longer timeframe.
The May 31 market holds at 3%, unchanged over 24 hours. The market trades $471,696/day in face value but only $13,145 in actual USDC, a gap that points to genuine interest while pricing in the regime’s current stability.
At 4.5¢, a YES share for Pahlavi’s June entry pays $1 if it resolves, a 22.2x return. The bet requires significant internal shifts within 73 days. Without signs of regime destabilization, these odds reflect noise more than imminent action.
Watch for IRGC defections or changes in leadership dynamics. Either would move market expectations sharply.
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