Iran issues new directives for Strait of Hormuz amid US talks

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister announced new directives for the Strait of Hormuz as part of US-Iran talks. The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 dropped to 13% YES, down from 22% a day ago.

Market reaction

The market for Trump’s diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 fell sharply, with odds at 13% YES, down from 22% yesterday, on $5,026 in USDC volume. The market is thin: just $283 moves it 5 points. The odds for lifting the US blockade of the Strait by May 31 are at 81.5% YES, down from 90% a day ago.

Why it matters

The permanent peace deal market sits at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday. Traders are pricing in low probability of a breakthrough by the April 22 deadline. All three related markets moved in the same direction, with the peace deal contract seeing the steepest percentage drop.

What to watch

The directive announcement lacks specifics, and the ongoing naval blockade keeps traders skeptical. At 13¢, a YES share for diplomatic meetings pays $1 if Trump meets Iran by April 30, a 7.7x return. That bet requires a breakthrough within 12 days. Watch for statements from Trump or Rubio about meeting plans, and for updates on Islamabad negotiations. A clear US or Iranian government statement could move these markets fast.

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