Iran keeps Hormuz open for shipping during ceasefire

Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open to commercial shipping for the remainder of the current ceasefire, and the market for Trump announcing the US lifting the blockade by May 31 sits at 86.5% YES.

The confirmation from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, echoed by President Trump, has traders pricing in a potential truce extension. The May 31 market is stable at 86.5%. The April 17 market is at 3.6% YES, while the April 19 market is at 17.5% YES. The jump from 17.5% on April 19 to 82% on May 31 tells you traders expect a major catalyst somewhere in that window.

Volume at $33,928 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The May 31 sub-market requires $3,730 to move 5 points, which points to a relatively thick order book. The largest move was a modest 2-point spike earlier today, consistent with steady confidence rather than erratic trading.

Iran’s statement signals de-escalation, with direct implications for US military operations in the region. If Hormuz stays open, the rationale for maintaining the blockade weakens, which could push Trump toward a formal announcement. That said, a YES share priced at 86.5¢ offers only a 1.22x return.

Watch for statements from the Pentagon and Iranian Foreign Ministry on further diplomatic progress or any change in blockade enforcement. Trump’s next post on Truth Social could move this market fast.

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