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Iran has proposed a deal to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the ongoing conflict. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 now sits at 60.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday and 90% a week ago.
The proposed deal changes the calculus for traders betting on the Hormuz blockade’s end. If accepted, it could lead to the blockade’s lifting and a Trump announcement before May 31. The market spiked 5 points at 3:50 PM, jumping from 57% to 62%, a quick reaction to the news even as the contract remains well below last week’s levels.
The WTI Crude Oil market is also moving. Odds for prices hitting $160 in April are at 0.4% YES, down from 1% both 24 hours and a week ago. A reopening of the Strait would ease oil supply disruptions, making a spike to $160 in April far less likely.
The Hormuz blockade market has $95,253 in daily USDC volume, with an order book depth of $8,975 to swing the price 5 points. Liquidity is decent but thin enough that single trades can move the market, which means prices are reactive to news.
Iran’s proposal could be a de-escalation tactic, but actual acceptance remains uncertain. Traders should weigh the likelihood of the US accepting terms that defer nuclear talks. A YES share for the Hormuz blockade lifting trades at 60.5¢, offering a 1.65x return if resolved. For this bet to pay off, you’d need confidence in a resolution within 37 days.
Watch for statements from Donald Trump and Abbas Araghchi. Any confirmation from the White House or Iranian Foreign Ministry about negotiations progressing could shift the odds further.
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