2 hours ago
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## Market Snapshot
The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?” is currently priced at 40.5% YES, down from 44% yesterday. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?” market is unresolved, with no current YES pricing available. The WTI Crude Oil market for hitting $150 in May remains unpriced.
## Key Takeaways
– Mojtaba Khamenei’s proposal appears to reinforce Iran’s intent to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. – The proposal suggests the likelihood of the US blockade being lifted by May 31 is decreasing. – Continued tensions may indicate potential increases in WTI Crude Oil prices in May 2026.
## Article Body
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has proposed new management for the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to bring calm and economic benefits to Gulf nations. This move is part of the wider context of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, which has been ongoing since the assassination of Iran’s previous Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. The conflict has led to a blockade by Iran and a counter-blockade by the United States, severely affecting global oil and LNG flows. Khamenei’s proposal underscores Iran’s intent to assert unilateral control over the strait, which handles a significant portion of the world’s oil traffic, amid stalled negotiations and continued geopolitical tensions.
## Market Interpretation
The proposal by Mojtaba Khamenei is consistent with maintaining Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, which may hinder the lifting of the US blockade. This scenario is supportive of a NO outcome in the market for Trump’s announcement of the blockade being lifted by May 31. The impact is assessed as moderate. Additionally, the potential for continued disruptions in oil transit is supportive of a YES outcome for WTI Crude Oil prices potentially reaching $150 in May.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any statements from Donald Trump and the US Central Command regarding the blockade status. The outcome of negotiations, particularly any progress in Islamabad talks, could shift current market pricing. Further developments in Iranian management of the Strait, including any new restrictions or agreements, will also be crucial to watch. Additionally, fluctuations in WTI Crude Oil prices and related futures data could indicate market sentiment regarding ongoing tensions and supply disruptions.
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English (US) · 