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Iran has received hard currency payments for transit tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. The market for 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 sits at 4% YES, down from 17% just 24 hours ago.
Iran’s collection of tolls in hard currency confirms its toll regime is ongoing. The 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 market has fallen from 28% a week ago to 4% YES. Toll enforcement has deterred shipping operators, making it unlikely that 80 ships will transit by the end of April.
The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normalization market faces the same pressure. Iran’s continued toll collection makes normal traffic levels unlikely to resume by the end of April. Trading volume here is currently low, and the persistence of tolls and geopolitical tensions work against this outcome.
Daily USDC trading volume for the 80 ships market is $2,238, with an order book depth of $946 to move the price by 5 points. The largest single price movement was a 2-point spike to 14% earlier today, showing some trader interest despite the low odds. The market is thin enough that relatively small trades can move the price.
At 4¢, a YES share on the 80 ships market would pay $1 if successful, a 25x return. That payout requires a dramatic shift within the next 7 days.
Watch for IRGC announcements on toll adjustments or US Navy responses. Changes in toll enforcement or military posture could move these markets quickly.
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