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Iran’s regime remains intact despite war and domestic protests, with the April 30 regime-fall market dropping to 1.4% YES, down from 2% a week ago.
A Ynet News report on the regime’s power consolidation has pushed odds for regime change further out across multiple timeframes. The May 31 market sits at 3.9% YES, down from 6% a week ago. Traders are pricing in diminishing prospects for near-term regime collapse. The June 30 market is at 6.5% YES.
Odds on Reza Pahlavi’s return have also fallen. The June 30 Pahlavi market is at 4.5% YES, down from 6% a week ago, consistent with a regime that has tightened its grip domestically.
Trading volume across the Iranian regime fall markets is at $24,583 in daily USDC traded. It takes roughly $24,000 to move the April 30 market price by 5 points, meaning the book is thin enough to be sensitive to large orders but has enough depth to absorb moderate volatility.
The Ynet News report, a Tier 2 source, points to a regime that is hardening through domestic repression rather than weakening toward collapse. The contrarian case: a YES share at 1.4¢ for April 30 pays $1 if the regime falls, a 71.43x return, though the odds have moved against that bet all month.
Watch the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for signs of fracturing or defection, and any announcements from the Assembly of Experts or unexpected public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei. Any of these could move the odds fast.
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