2 hours ago
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Tehran reimposed control over the Strait of Hormuz, with IRGC gunboats firing on a tanker. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 58.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
The closure moved related markets. The UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 is at 7.5% YES. Traders are pricing in almost no chance of immediate British military intervention. The Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 market is at 76.5% YES, meaning traders expect a diplomatic resolution but not within the April 30 window.
The April 30 normalization market traded $10,250 in USDC over the past 24 hours. With just $354 needed to move the price 5 points, the contract is thin and vulnerable to volatility. The largest single move was a 4-point drop as traders priced in skepticism about a quick resolution.
Iran’s firing on a tanker makes an imminent reopening less likely, which explains the 10-point drop on the April 30 contract. The 5.5% odds on UK warship deployment tell a clear story: traders don’t expect a military response within 14 days. A YES share at 5.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 18x return. But that bet only makes sense if you believe rapid British military escalation is coming in the next two weeks.
Watch for official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or shifts in US-Iran diplomatic talks. Increased naval deployments or breakthrough negotiations would move these contracts fast.
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