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Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April is at 49.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.
Market reaction
The market for Trump agreeing to lift oil sanctions this month has risen to 49.5% YES, from 34% just 24 hours ago. The ceasefire expires in six days, and traders are watching the Islamabad talks closely.
Why it matters
Iran’s reopening of the Strait suggests real movement in U.S.-Iran negotiations. No market currently tracks Trump announcing the end of military operations against Iran, but one could emerge if de-escalation continues. The oil sanction relief market has $7,900 in USDC traded, and it takes only $279 to move the odds by 5 points, meaning even modest capital can shift prices on new information.
What to watch
The Islamabad talks and the ceasefire expiry are the two immediate catalysts. Official statements from Trump or the White House, particularly any announcements on Truth Social about sanctions or military operations, could move odds fast. A YES share at 49.5¢ pays $1 if Trump agrees to demands by month’s end, a 2.78x return. That payout depends on significant progress in Islamabad within the next six days.
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