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Iran’s IRGC and Foreign Ministry are clashing over the Strait of Hormuz. The chance of Trump announcing the blockade lift by May 31 is at 73.5% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
Ghalibaf’s posts suggest a divide within Iran, with the IRGC taking a tough stance. This has led to a drop in the odds of Trump lifting the blockade soon. The April 19 market, with just one day left, is at 8% YES, down from 28% yesterday. The term structure shows a 70-point increase between April 19 and May 31, indicating traders expect any resolution to occur closer to the May deadline.
For the UK warship market, the odds of a British naval presence in Hormuz by April 30 are at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. The IRGC’s actions and Iran’s internal policy split have reduced expectations of foreign warships passing through the strait soon.
Trading volumes show $29,602 in USDC traded across markets related to the blockade announcement. The depth is limited, with $1,419 needed to move the May 31 market 5 points, suggesting potential volatility if a large trade occurs. The largest movement was a 5-point drop in the May 31 market, showing traders’ skepticism about a near-term resolution.
The internal conflict in Iran’s leadership suggests ongoing tensions. The source tier is low, but the implications are clear: Iran’s mixed signals complicate US decision-making. Buying YES at 73.5¢ could yield a 1.28x return if resolved, but traders need confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for any decisive moves from the IRGC or statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A shift in Iran’s aggressive posture or US acknowledgment of Iranian compliance could significantly change market dynamics.
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