Iran’s IRGC missile launch failure raises regime fall odds to 14% by June 30

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Iran’s IRGC faced another setback with a missile launch failure in western Tehran, highlighting the degradation of its military capabilities. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have risen to 14% YES, up from 12% a day ago.

The June 30 market now stands at 14% YES, reflecting a slight increase. Although down from 20% a week ago, operational failures and reduced missile launches keep traders engaged. At 13.5% YES, the market suggests potential regime instability with 88 days left until resolution.

Trading volume hit $59,114 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with $185,529 needed to shift odds by 5 points. This robust market depth shows traders are weighing Iran’s military struggles carefully. The largest price move—a 1-point spike at 7:21 PM—indicates a measured response to the news.

The missile program’s failures point to ongoing challenges for the Iranian regime. Military setbacks could lead to internal fractures or a leadership crisis. However, without clear signals like mass protests or IRGC defections, the market remains cautious. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30—a 7.1x return. Betting here requires belief in imminent regime destabilization.

Watch for actions from the IRGC Supreme Council or unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings. Signs of internal dissent or confirmation of military failures could shift the market.