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Iran has seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting control over the waterway after President Trump called off further US attacks. The likelihood of Trump lifting the US blockade by May 31 now sits at 75.5% YES, down from 82% a day ago.
## Market reaction
The drop reflects skepticism about de-escalation as Iran takes a more aggressive stance. The May 31 market had $27,582 in USDC traded, with order book depth showing it takes $8,549 to move the price 5 points, which is reasonable liquidity. The largest move was a 3-point drop at 5:36 AM, a bearish response to the ongoing tensions.
The odds of the UK sending warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 have dropped to 2.9% YES from 10% a day ago. That market’s order book is thin: it takes just $200 to move the price 5 points, so even small trades can shift the odds significantly.
## Why it matters
Iran’s ship seizures signal that control over the Strait remains a strategic priority, complicating any path to resolution. Current market pricing reflects sustained conflict and limited diplomatic progress. Buying YES shares at 76¢ offers a potential 1.32x return but depends on a diplomatic breakthrough that looks unlikely at current prices.
## What to watch
Traders should monitor any statements from Trump or the Iranian government indicating a shift in posture. New naval movements or military engagements in the Strait could move both markets sharply.
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