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Iran announced it won’t attend the next round of ceasefire discussions, just two days before the current agreement expires. The odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 have dropped to 30.5% YES.
The April 30 sub-market fell from 36% a week ago. With 10 days remaining, the odds reflect skepticism about any diplomatic agreement before the deadline.
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market has also moved. Odds for an agreement by April 30 sit at 4.8% YES, unchanged over 24 hours but down from earlier levels. A larger jump from the April to June contracts suggests traders expect any progress to be delayed by months.
Daily USDC volume in the ceasefire market is at $54,670. But it only takes $841 to move the price 5 points, which means sharp swings are cheap to produce. The largest recent movement was a 4-point drop at 4:28 PM, consistent with thin-book nervousness.
Iran’s absence from talks signals an unwillingness to de-escalate, which directly lowers the probability of a ceasefire extension before the deadline. Buying YES at 30¢ offers a potential 3.3x return, but requires confidence in an unexpected reversal from Tehran.
Watch for developments from the U.S. delegation heading to Islamabad and whether intermediaries like Oman or Qatar can bring Iran back to the table. Any shift in Iran’s position would immediately reprice both markets.
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