Iran sold $18B in oil during war and ceasefire period, exposing limits of sanctions enforcement

Iran managed to sell a combined $18 billion worth of crude oil across both its active war with Israel and the subsequent ceasefire period. The breakdown: $11.5 billion in sales during the war phase, and another $6.5 billion during the ceasefire. How Iran kept the oil flowing In March 2026 alone, Iran exported approximately 35.7 million barrels of crude, valued at around $3.63 billion. Year-to-date through the conflict period, total exports reached roughly 145.7 million barrels, generating approximately $11.2 billion in revenue despite active wartime disruptions. During the early war months of February and March, daily revenues reached approximately $115 million to $139 million. Higher oil prices, which surged to $100 to $120 per barrel amid the fighting, partially compensated for reduced volumes. The US naval blockade eventually took a real bite. By May 2026, Iranian exports had been squeezed below 300,000 barrels per day, leading to an estimated $6 billion revenue shortfall. Once the blockade eased following ceasefire negotiations, Iran ramped exports back to over 40 to 50 million barrels within roughly two weeks. The mechanism was Iran’s shadow fleet, a network of aging tankers t...