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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for his support amid tightening US sanctions. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market now sits at 1.1% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
The US-Iran nuclear deal market dropped sharply as Iran strengthened ties with Russia, suggesting a harder stance against US demands. With six days left before resolution, odds fell from 7% to 1.1%. Separately, the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market fell to 58% YES from 72% yesterday as geopolitical tension persists.
The nuclear deal market showed a 4-point spike to 12% at 3:50 PM, likely a short-lived reaction to hopeful headlines. The volume tells a different story. Only $7,699 in actual USDC has been traded against a face value of $107,556, meaning the market is shallow. It takes roughly $1,550 to move the odds by 5 points, making the contract susceptible to swings from even moderate trades.
Iran’s closer relationship with Russia complicates any potential US-Iran negotiations. A YES share at 1¢ would pay $1 if a deal is reached by April 30, a 90x return. But with Iran leaning toward Moscow, betting on a deal looks risky without a major diplomatic shift.
Watch for any unexpected diplomatic engagements or statements from Moscow or Washington. A breakthrough in mediation or surprise concessions could move these odds fast.
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