Iran threatens to block trade routes as US launches strikes, but Bitcoin barely flinches

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice” on July 12 after the US launched its third round of airstrikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in a single week. The move threatens to choke one of the world’s most critical maritime trade corridors, and traditional markets reacted about as calmly as you’d expect, which is to say, not at all.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, barely moved. The largest cryptocurrency traded around $63,800 on July 12 and 13, posting a roughly 0.3% daily decline while oil prices spiked and equity markets sold off.

What happened and why the Strait matters

The US strikes targeted IRGC military installations in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. Roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passes through this corridor. This wasn’t a one-off escalation. The July strikes represent the third round of US military action against Iranian assets in just seven days, building on earlier skirmishes in February and May of 2026.

Bitcoin’s unusual calm

Bitcoin’s muted reaction to the July escalation stands in sharp contrast to how it handled previous rounds of the same conflict. During the May 28 strikes, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies dropped 3-4%, and nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated across exchanges.

This time, the market absorbed the shock with something approaching indifference. A 0.3% decline on a day when a major global trade route gets shut down is, in crypto terms, a rounding error.

Prediction markets cash in on geopolitical chaos

While spot crypto markets stayed relatively flat, prediction markets had a field day. Polymarket recorded record trading volumes on US-Iran conflict-related betting contracts, with some accounts reportedly profiting approximately $1.2 million from accurate predictions tied to the strikes. Some of those winning positions were reportedly established as far back as February 2026, suggesting that a subset of traders saw the escalation trajectory clearly months before the broader market priced it in.

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