Iranian tankers evade US blockade, head to Asia with 4M barrels of oil

Two Iranian tankers carrying four million barrels of oil have slipped past the US blockade, headed for Asia. The market for US Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sits at 1.9% YES, down from 7% yesterday.

Market reaction

The US escorts market moved sharply lower on the news. Odds dropped from 18% a week ago to under 2% now, suggesting traders see the breach as evidence the US won’t intervene militarily in the near term. The Trump blockade announcement market fell to 58.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.

Why it matters

The US escorts market has a thin order book: only $1,276 in USDC trades daily, and $732 is enough to move the price 5 percentage points. That means a handful of trades can swing the odds substantially, and the current low price reflects genuine disinterest rather than heavy conviction on the NO side. Two tankers getting through without a US response weakens the case that Washington will escalate to direct naval escorts.

What to watch

At 2¢, a YES share pays $1 if the US Navy escorts a commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30, a 50x return. That bet requires believing the US will shift to military action within six days. Any statements from the Pentagon or CENTCOM, or additional Iranian tanker breaches, could move these markets quickly.

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