Israel’s mini-ministerial council to convene as US-Iran deal takes shape

Israel’s top security cabinet is preparing to meet as a US-Iran agreement, brokered by an unlikely mediator, threatens to reshape the geopolitical chessboard in the Middle East. The mini-ministerial council, a smaller subset of the full security cabinet reserved for the most sensitive decisions, is set to convene to evaluate the implications of a deal that Israel had no direct role in negotiating.

US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on the wording of the deal as of June 12. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has been acting as mediator, a role that itself represents a notable diplomatic pivot for Islamabad.

The proposed agreement contains three core elements: a 60-day extension of the existing ceasefire between the two sides, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the beginning of formal nuclear discussions.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure or restriction has historically sent energy markets into panic mode. Reopening it would represent a tangible economic concession from Tehran.

The deal still requires final sign-off from US President Donald Trump and confirmation from Iranian officials. An electronic signing of the peace deal is expected soon.

Israel’s parallel military moves

Israeli forces conducted air strikes in southern Lebanon around June 13, and military directives have been issued to expand operations in Gaza amid the heightened regional tensions.

Israel has historically opposed any agreement it perceives as too lenient on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The 2015 JCPOA prompted years of vocal Israeli opposition that only ended when the Trump administration withdrew from it in 2018.

Hezbollah remains actively engaged in conflicts with Israeli forces, and no amount of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran automatically neutralizes that threat. Earlier Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and multiple short-lived ceasefires since 2025 have created a cycle of violence that diplomatic breakthroughs have so far failed to break permanently.

What this means for markets and regional stability

The Strait of Hormuz reopening, if it actually materializes, would ease supply concerns that have periodically jolted oil prices over the past two years. Energy traders have been pricing in a risk premium tied to the waterway’s restricted status.

The 60-day ceasefire window, assuming the deal gets signed, creates a defined period during which all parties will be testing each other’s intentions. For Israel, the question is whether this agreement constrains its ability to respond to threats from Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies. For the US, the challenge is maintaining leverage over Tehran while simultaneously engaging in nuclear talks. For Iran, the calculus involves whether reopening Hormuz and entering nuclear discussions yields enough sanctions relief or diplomatic recognition to justify the concessions.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.