2 hours ago
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Israeli forces have uncovered an Iranian Revolutionary Guards terror network aiming to sabotage a strategic oil pipeline. The odds for an attack on the Kharg Island oil terminal by April 30 are now at 11% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
The Kharg Island oil terminal attack by April 30 market has risen slightly on the news. The March 31 attack market is the more immediate contract given the tighter deadline. The odds for Iranian leadership changes by December 31 haven’t shifted much, as traders appear uncertain about longer-term political consequences.
The Kharg Island market’s daily trading volume is $687 in actual USDC, with an order book depth requiring $2,139 to move the price 5 points. A 1-point spike occurred at 10:31 PM as traders reacted to the uncovered plot. This market is thin, so relatively small capital shifts can produce large price moves.
The exposure fits a pattern in the Iran-Israel shadow war. It’s not a game-changer on its own, but it suggests increased Iranian willingness to target economic infrastructure, consistent with past tactics. A YES share at 11¢ pays $1 if the attack occurs, a 16.67x return. For that payout to make sense, you’d need to believe escalation leads to tangible strikes within the next 12 days.
Watch for official announcements from the U.S. or Israeli governments on military actions or escalations. Iranian responses or retaliations could also move these markets significantly.
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