J.P. Morgan projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over the next decade

J.P. Morgan Asset Management now expects Bitcoin to beat US stocks, gold, and REITs over the next ten years. That forecast comes from the bank’s “Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2027” report. The numbers behind the forecast The report was unveiled around October 19, 2026. It puts Bitcoin’s expected compound return at 10% a year, ahead of US large-cap equities at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. According to the research findings, Bitcoin is now the highest-returning asset class in the history of the report’s long-term projections. It also marks the first time Bitcoin has appeared in J.P. Morgan’s annual LTCMA at all. The report pegs Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with roughly 18% for large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold. J.P. Morgan estimates Bitcoin’s annualized arithmetic return at 20.9%, roughly double the 10% compound figure. Arithmetic return is the simple average of each year’s gain or loss. Compound return is what an investor actually ends up with after holding through the ups and downs. Big drawdowns eat into compounding: lose half your money and you need to double it just to get back to even. A forecast, not a recommendation Bitcoin is included in the return pr...