JPMorgan anticipates Fed rate hike in december after chair warsh’s press conference impacts bond markets

JPMorgan has revised its forecast for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike, suggesting the possibility of an increase as early as December 2026. This shift follows a significant reaction in the bond markets after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent press conference. During the conference, the 30-year Treasury yield surged above 5.20%, reaching levels not seen since the 2007 financial crisis. The market’s response indicates growing uncertainty over the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a restrictive policy to control inflation, which has remained above the 2% target for five years. The bond market selloff has led market participants to reassess their expectations for the Fed’s policy path. Previously, JPMorgan predicted a rate hike in the latter half of 2027, but now sees a 25-basis-point increase as early as December 2026. This adjustment comes amid rising concerns about inflation and suggests that the Federal Reserve may act sooner to tighten monetary policy. In the prediction markets, the prospect of a rate hike by the September 2026 meeting has seen a decline in implied probability, with current odds at 47.5% YES, down from 56% a day ago. Similarly, the October 2026 meeting odd...