JPMorgan strategists warn of swift decline as oil tops $100

Brent crude punched through $100 per barrel this week, and JPMorgan’s strategists are already bracing for the hangover. The bank’s concern isn’t just that oil is expensive. It’s that the decline, when it comes, could be fast enough to catch most traders leaning the wrong way. The triple-digit milestone arrived on the back of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the same geopolitical pressure cooker that pushed Brent as high as $105.94 during an intraday spike back in May. But JPMorgan’s projected average crude price for 2026 sits at $97 per barrel, a number that implies the current levels are borrowed time rather than a new normal. The Fed connection no one wanted Both banks now expect a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting. That’s a meaningful pivot from earlier expectations of a pause, driven by inflation data that came in hotter than anticipated, with energy costs doing much of the heavy lifting. Why JPMorgan sees a snapback coming Earlier in 2026, some forecasts from major banks floated worst-case scenarios where Brent could surge to $120 or even $150 if supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz became prolonged. Those numbers now look like rel...