JPMorgan warns global food prices could rise 5% amid crises

JPMorgan is sounding the alarm on what it calls a “compounding storm” for global food prices. In a report published July 24 titled “Food Security is National Security,” the bank projects that global food inflation could hit roughly 5% on an annualized basis in the first half of 2027, nearly doubling from an estimated 2.8% in the first half of 2026. The culprits: a fertilizer supply chain fractured by Middle East conflict and a super El Niño weather pattern that refuses to quit. Together, these forces could add an extra 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points to peak global food inflation and tack on 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points to overall headline inflation worldwide. Two crises, one grocery bill The first pressure point is nitrogen fertilizer, the invisible ingredient behind most of the world’s crop yields. The ongoing conflict in Iran and closures of the Strait of Hormuz have throttled a critical chokepoint for global fertilizer trade. The Middle East accounts for approximately 42% of global urea exports and about 27% of ammonia exports. Roughly one-third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The second force is meteorological. JPMorgan’s report, authored...