Kalshi assigns 93% chance Anthropic goes public before OpenAI

Two of the most valuable companies on earth are racing to ring the opening bell, and the crowd betting real money on the outcome has made its call: Anthropic gets there first. Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, assigns a 93% probability to Anthropic going public before OpenAI. That is not a rounding error. It reflects a genuine shift in market sentiment that has played out over the course of 2026, as Anthropic’s financial profile improved and OpenAI’s timeline slipped. How the race unfolded Both companies submitted S-1 registration statements to the SEC in June 2026. Anthropic filed on June 1, OpenAI followed a week later on June 8. On paper, a seven-day gap is almost nothing. In practice, it set the tone for everything that followed. Anthropic is targeting an October 2026 debut on the Nasdaq. OpenAI, meanwhile, has reportedly seen its own listing slip into 2027, delayed by operational challenges. When the front-runner stumbles and the challenger keeps its pace, the odds swing fast. Kalshi’s IPO-related contracts for these two companies have drawn millions in trading volume, with one tracked series alone reaching $1.7 million. Anthropic’s revenue run rate i...