Kalshi court split could fragment US prediction markets: expert

With 38 active cases across 21 states, conflicting federal rulings over Kalshi have raised the risk that U.S. prediction-market access will fragment by location and trading venue, Kalshinomics co-founder Aaron Courtney has told crypto.news. Summary New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to resolve opposing federal rulings involving Kalshi. Courtney said state restrictions could weaken liquidity first in local political and event markets. Washington proxy data has not shown a clear statewide liquidity shock after Kalshi restricted access. Casino.org counts 38 pending prediction-market cases across 21 states and enforcement in 10 jurisdictions. Courtney, who co-founded prediction-market analytics platform Kalshinomics, said the legal system is dividing access faster than trading data shows any separation in prices or liquidity. “The legal system is already moving in that direction faster than the price data,” Courtney said in comments shared with crypto.news. New Jersey filed a petition for a writ of certiorari on Sep. 2, asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review a Third Circuit decision that favored Kalshi. The petition came four days after the Ninth Circuit reached a different conclu...