Kalshi’s Senate contracts can settle on different answers to the same election

Prediction exchange Kalshi’s Senate markets showed different Democratic odds on Oct. 28, but buying a four-contract hedge at the quoted prices cost $3.02 before fees for a $3 gross payout only if the control and seat-count outcomes aligned.The Senate-control market had a 64.5% midpoint at 22:11:45 UTC, while a normalized estimate from the Democratic seat-count markets put the chance of 51 or more seats at about 62.1%. That 2.4-percentage-point gap was a comparison between prices. The four purchase quotes already exceeded the conditional payout by two cents, and the contracts’ different settlement provisions left a separate risk.The quote test comes alongside Talos’s Oct. 28 research into pricing differences across Senate markets. Its historical nine-leg model found occasional positive results under stated execution assumptions. The four-leg calculation here examines a separate package using purchase quotes captured on Oct. 28.What the $3.02 package buysThe package combines one YES on Democratic Senate control with one NO on each of three disjoint seat outcomes: exactly 51, exactly 52 and above 52. Those seat buckets cover every Democratic total of 51 or more without overlapping.At ...