Kalshi traders bet US diesel prices fall to $6.20 after Trump’s tax-free fuel order

Diesel has been one of the more painful line items in the US economy this fall. Traders on Kalshi now think relief is on the way. Contracts on the prediction market show traders expecting the national average retail diesel price to fall to $6.20 per gallon or lower. The bet follows President Donald Trump’s executive order temporarily opening tax-exempt dyed diesel to on-highway use. What the order does and what traders are betting on Trump signed the executive order on October 5, 2026. It temporarily expands access to dyed diesel, the tax-exempt version of the fuel, so it can be used on highways. The order defers federal excise taxes on dyed diesel for the rest of the year. The stated goal is relief for truckers, farmers and consumers who have absorbed a sharp run-up in fuel costs. The deferral could save users over $100 per refill, a figure that matters most for long-haul rigs and farm equipment with large tanks. On Kalshi, traders have piled into diesel price brackets. One contract tracks whether the national average will sit at or below $6.20 on November 3, 2026, which happens to be Election Day. Trading activity has concentrated on shorter-term forecasts leading up to that date...