Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination signals likely Powell exit by June 30

Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation process is underway, signaling a likely transition at the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31 sits at 96% YES, up from 92% yesterday.

Market reaction

Warsh’s nomination by President Trump, known for his hawkish views, raises the probability of Powell’s departure. The May 15 market sits at 72.5% YES, down from 80% yesterday, suggesting traders see confirmation as unlikely by mid-May. The biggest jump occurs between May 14 and May 15, pointing to a potential catalyst in that window. The June 30 market at 99.7% YES reflects near certainty of Powell’s exit by then.

Why it matters

The Powell exit market trades $248,238 daily in face value, with actual USDC at $21,084. The order book is relatively thin: it takes only $2,168 to move the odds 5 percentage points in the May 14 market. The largest single move over the past day was a 25-point drop in the May 15 market at 7:03 PM, likely driven by uncertainty over Warsh’s swift confirmation.

Warsh’s commitment to Fed independence and hawkish stance on rate policy suggests a lower likelihood of rate cuts in 2026.

What to watch

At 5.2¢, a YES share for Powell out by May 14 pays $1 if it resolves, a 19.2x return. Given the current odds, the bet is risky unless you believe in a quick confirmation process. Watch for developments from the Senate Banking Committee and any statements from Powell or Warsh that could shift confirmation timelines. The May 4 Senate session, where a vote could clarify confirmation prospects, is the key date.

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Jerome powell out as Fed chair bullish

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