Key US Economic Indicators That Could Impact Crypto This Week

1. Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Confidence Index is a vital signal of how Americans feel about the economy. In April 2025, it dropped sharply to 86.0, down 7.9 points from March. This was the lowest level since October 2011.

A separate figure, the Expectations Index, fell to 54.4. Any number below 80 often signals recession risks. This growing fear about the future impacts spending and investment behavior.

Key concerns:

• 32.1% of consumers believe there will be fewer jobs in the next six months.
• Rising tariffs and high prices are making people more cautious.

Impact on crypto:

• Lower confidence means less risk-taking.
• People may choose safer assets like cash or bonds.
• But long-term fear may push some toward Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

Summary Table: Consumer Confidence Impact

2. FOMC Meeting Minutes

On May 28, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last policy meeting. Traders are watching closely for clues about interest rates.

Current outlook:

• Only two rate cuts are projected for the year.
• Inflation is still a concern, partly due to tariffs.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is cautious and leans toward keeping rates high for now.

Market prediction:

• A 94.3% chance the Fed won’t change rates in June.

Impact on crypto:

• High interest rates strengthen the dollar.
• This often puts pressure on Bitcoin and altcoins.
• Lower rate expectations, on the other hand, could lift crypto prices.

3. Initial Jobless Claims

Jobless claims are a direct way to measure economic health. For the week ending May 17, initial claims were 227,000, slightly down from the week before.

Continuing claims rose to 1.903 million, indicating some softness in the labor market.

Forecast for May 24: 228,000

What this means:

• A small increase suggests the economy is cooling, but not crashing.
• Rising unemployment can lower investor risk appetite.

Crypto outlook:

• A stable job market is good for crypto.
• A sharp increase in claims could push people toward safer investments.

4. PCE Price Index

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is the Fed’s favorite inflation measure. The April 2025 data will be released on May 30.

Projections:

• PCE: 2.2% year-over-year (down from 2.3% in March)
• Core PCE (excludes food and energy): 2.6%

What March data showed:

• Spending slowed slightly.
• The savings rate was 3.9%, showing cautious consumer behavior.

Why it matters:

• If PCE numbers are lower than expected, crypto could rise.
• If inflation is higher, rate cuts might be delayed, hurting crypto sentiment.

Summary Table: PCE Scenarios

Here’s a quick checklist of dates and events to track this week:

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,640, up by 1.35% in the last 24 hours. Volatility is expected, and traders should stay alert. Economic news can quickly shift market sentiment—so balance your strategy between macro data and crypto-specific developments.